The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research
The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-88-9-1383
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发表时间：
2007-09-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Taylor, Karl E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meehl, Gerald A.;Covey, Curt;Taylor, Karl E.
来自11个国家的16个模拟小组开展了一套针对20世纪和21世纪气候的全球耦合气候模式[大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCM）]实验，以及若干气候变化承诺和其他实验，其中23个模式供政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（AR4）评估。自评估完成以来，另一个模型的输出已被添加到数据集中，因此现在参与的是来自12个国家的17个小组和24个模型。这项工作以及随后的分析阶段是由世界气候研究计划（WCRP）气候变率和可预测性耦合模式工作组（WGCM）气候模拟小组组织的，构成了耦合模式比对项目（CMIP3）的第三阶段。该数据集被称为WCRP CMIP3多模式数据集，代表了迄今为止规模最大、最全面的国际全球耦合气候模式试验和多模式分析工作。截至2007年3月，气候模型诊断和比对项目（PCMDI）已经收集、存档并提供了大约32 TB的模型数据。在专家组的监督下，PCMDI公开提供了多模型数据，用于分析和学术应用。迄今为止，1000多名注册用户已经下载了超过171 TB的数据。迄今为止，已有超过200篇基于该数据集的期刊文章发表了23篇。虽然最初的目标是IPCC第四次评估报告，但这一独特而宝贵的资源将至少在未来几年内继续保持。在此之前，国际气候科学界从未有过如此广泛的气候模型模拟供其研究。对多模型数据集的随时访问为研究人员（包括学生）打开了这些类型的模型分析，这些研究人员以前无法获得最先进的气候模型输出，因此代表了气候变化研究的新时代。作为一个直接的结果，这些正在进行的研究正在增加我们对气候系统当前如何运作以及未来如何变化的理解的知识体系。（第1383页）在
A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first- century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-(IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published 23 as so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such` an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future. (Page 1383) in at