The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models
The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models
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DOI：
10.1029/2020jd032701
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发表时间：
2020-12-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Schiemann, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Harvey, B. J.;Cook, P.;Schiemann, R.
北半球 (NH) 风暴路径和急流的表征及其对气候变化的响应已在耦合模型比对项目（分别为 CMIP3、CMIP5 和 CMIP6）第 3、5 和 6 阶段的气候模型模拟中进行了评估。 CMIP3、CMIP5 和 CMIP6 中多模型偏差的空间模式相似；然而，CMIP6 模型中的偏差幅度要低得多。例如，CMIP6 模型的北大西洋风暴路径多模型平均 RMSE（通过时间过滤的海平面压力方差测量）在冬季和夏季都比 CMIP3 模型小 50% 以上，而北太平洋则小 40% 以上。 CMIP6 中急流偏差的幅度也有所降低，但幅度较小。尽管对当前气候的描述有所改善，但 CMIP3、CMIP5 和 CMIP6 模型中 NH 风暴路径和急流的气候变化响应的空间模式仍然相似。 CMIP6 模型中的 SSP2-4.5 情景响应远大于 RCP4.5 CMIP5 模型中的响应，这与 CMIP6 模型相比 CMIP5 具有更大的气候敏感性是一致的。
The representation of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks and jet streams and their response to climate change have been evaluated in climate model simulations from Phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6, respectively). The spatial patterns of the multimodel biases in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 are similar; however, the magnitudes of the biases in the CMIP6 models are substantially lower. For instance, the multimodel mean RMSE of the North Atlantic storm track for the CMIP6 models (as measured by time-filtered sea-level pressure variance) is over 50% smaller than that of the CMIP3 models in both winter and summer, and over 40% smaller for the North Pacific. The magnitude of the jet stream biases is also reduced in CMIP6, but by a lesser extent. Despite this improved representation of the current climate, the spatial patterns of the climate change response of the NH storm tracks and jet streams remain similar in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. The SSP2-4.5 scenario responses in the CMIP6 models are substantially larger than in the RCP4.5 CMIP5 models, which is consistent with the larger climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5.