Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species
Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01377.x
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Sykes, MT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gritti, ES;Smith, B;Sykes, MT
目的评估在广泛的范围内的脆弱性地中海植被外来植物入侵在不同的气候和干扰scenarios.Location我们模拟了植被地理和动态的五个主要岛屿的地中海盆地：马略卡岛、科西嘉岛、撒丁岛、克里特岛和莱斯沃斯岛。方法我们使用LPJ-GUESS，一个基于动态过程描述建立、竞争、死亡率和生态系统地球化学。我们模拟的植被分布和动态使用一组植物功能类型（PFT）的基础上，生物气候和生理参数，其中包括树木和灌木PFT定义特别是地中海。此外，两个入侵PFT，入侵树型和入侵草本植物型，被定义和用于估计入侵的脆弱性的一系列不同的生态系统。该模型被用来模拟气候变化和大气[CO2]的相关变化，到2050年根据两个特别报告排放情景气候情景（A1 Fi和B1）结合平均扰动间隔3和40 years.Results的模拟和情景表明，气候变化的影响可能是可以忽略不计的，在许多模拟的生态系统，但不是所有。入侵的模拟进展高度依赖于最初的生态系统组成和当地的环境条件，特别是地中海干燥和潮湿的地区之间的对比，山区和沿海地区之间。生态系统的干扰率是控制易感性的主要因素invasion.Main结论进一步入侵到地中海岛屿生态系统可能是一个越来越大的问题：我们的模拟预测，在较长的时间内，几乎所有的生态系统将占主导地位的外来植物干扰率无关。
Aim To assess at a broad scale the vulnerability of Mediterranean vegetation to alien plant invasion under different climatic and disturbance scenarios.Location We simulated the vegetation biogeography and dynamics on five of the main islands of the Mediterranean Basin: Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete and Lesvos.Methods We used LPJ-GUESS, a generalized ecosystem model based on dynamic processes describing establishment, competition, mortality and ecosystem biogeochemistry. We simulated the vegetation distribution and dynamics using a set of plant functional types (PFTs) based on bioclimatic and physiological parameters, which included tree and shrub PFTs defined especially for the Mediterranean. Additionally, two invasive PFTs, an invasive tree type and an invasive herb type, were defined and used to estimate the vulnerability to invasion of a range of different ecosystems. The model was used to simulate climate changes and associated changes in atmospheric [CO2] to 2050 according to two Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate scenarios (A1Fi and B1) combined with mean disturbance intervals of 3 and 40 years.Results The simulations and scenarios showed that the effect of climate change alone is likely to be negligible in many of the simulated ecosystems, although not all. The simulated progression of an invasion was highly dependent on the initial ecosystem composition and local environmental conditions, with a particular contrast between drier and wetter parts of the Mediterranean, and between mountain and coastal areas. The rate of ecosystem disturbance was the main factor controlling susceptibility to invasion, strongly influencing vegetation development on the shorter time scale.Main conclusions Further invasion into Mediterranean island ecosystems is likely to be an increasing problem: our simulations predict that, in the longer term, almost all the ecosystems will be dominated by exotic plants irrespective of disturbance rates.