A method for timely assessment of influenza-associated mortality in the United States
A method for timely assessment of influenza-associated mortality in the United States
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DOI：
10.1097/00001648-199707000-00007
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发表时间：
1997-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Cox, NJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Simonsen, L;Clarke, MJ;Cox, NJ
流感相关死亡率传统上被估计为流感流行期间死亡基线以上的超额死亡率。超额死亡率估计数并不及时，因为国家生命统计数据是在2-3年后才提供的。为了开发一种及时报告的方法，我们使用了由疾病控制和预防中心维护的121个城市监测系统（121个城市）作为替代数据源。我们拟合一个周期性回归模型的时间序列，每周121个城市的肺炎和流感死亡的1972-1996年估计额外的肺炎和流感死亡率，并比较这些数字与国家的生命统计估计的20个流感季节在1972-1992年。基于121个城市的季节性超额死亡率与全国数据相关性良好：在20个季节中的18个（90%），我们的流感流行严重程度指数类别接近于基于全国人口动态统计的结果。我们产生了1992-1996年期间最近四个季节的初步严重程度类别。我们的结论是，121个城市监测系统可以用于及时评估未来流感流行和大流行的严重程度，及时的肺炎和流感死亡率报告系统建立在全球范围内的哨点国家将有助于提醒公共卫生官员，并允许在未来的流感流行和大流行及时预防和干预策略。
influenza-associated mortality has traditionally been estimated as the excess mortality above a baseline of deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Excess mortality estimates are not timely, because national vital statistics data became available after a period of 2-3 years. To develop a method for timely reporting, we used the 121 Cities Surveillance System (121 Cities), maintained at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as an alternative data source. We fit a cyclical regression model to time series of weekly 121 Cities pneumonia and influenza deaths for 1972-1996 to estimate the excess pneumonia and influenza mortality and to compare these figures with national vital statistics estimates for 20 influenza seasons during 1972-1992. Seasonal excess mortality based on 121 Cities correlated well with the national data: for 18 (90%) of 20 seasons, our influenza epidemic severity index category approximated the result based on national vital statistics. We generated preliminary severity categories for the four recent seasons during 1992-1996. We conclude that the 121 Cities Surveillance System can be used for the timely assessment of the severity of future influenza epidemics and pandemics, Timely pneumonia and influenza mortality reporting systems established in sentinel countries worldwide would help alert public health officials and allow prompt prevention and intervention strategies during future influenza epidemics and pandemics.