Youth Voter Mobilization Through Online Advertising: Evidence From Two GOTV Field Experiments
Youth Voter Mobilization Through Online Advertising: Evidence From Two GOTV Field Experiments
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通过在线广告动员青年选民：两个 GOTV 实地实验的证据
DOI：
10.31219/osf.io/6c9na
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Joshua L. Kalla
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Joshua L. Kalla
日益分散的媒体环境对试图说服年轻选民的竞选活动和政治组织构成了挑战，因为年轻人越来越多地避开电视，转而在线视频流媒体，他们代表着越来越多的只使用手机的人群，而这一群体的接触成本更高。因此，每个周期的活动都在在线广告上投入更多资金。然而，这种外展的有效性是一个悬而未决的问题，文献中有不同的发现(Bond等人。2012、Broockman和Green 2012)。为了测试这种动员选民的推广活动的有效性，我们与全国性组织Rock the Vote合作，在2012年总统选举期间使用Facebook上的广告进行了一项涉及七个州、731,568人的GOTV试验，其中包括近400万次广告印象，并在2013年大选期间复制了14个州、93,053人的试验。在这两个实验中，我们没有发现任何证据表明治疗组的选民投票率高于控制组。尽管2012年的实验的探索性分析表明，这些广告对那些有过在线广告点击历史的人来说是有效的，但2013年的后续实验未能证实这一发现。这些结果表明，虽然在线广告可以接触到年轻选民，但它可能不是鼓励他们投票的灵丹妙药。这项研究还强调了复制甚至大规模实验结果的重要性。
An increasingly fragmented media environment poses a challenge to campaigns and political organizations trying to persuade young voters, as young people increasingly eschew television for online video streaming and represent a growing cell-phone-only population, which is more costly to reach. As a result, each cycle campaigns are spending more on online advertising. However, the effectiveness of this outreach is an open question with disparate findings in the literature (Bond et al. 2012, Broockman and Green 2012). To test the effectiveness of this outreach for voter mobilization, we partnered with a national organization, Rock the Vote, to conduct a seven-state, 731,568-person GOTV experiment using advertising on Facebook during the 2012 presidential election, which involved nearly four million advertising impressions, and a 14-state, 93,053-person replication during the 2013 general election. Across both experiments, we find no evidence that voter turnout in the treatment group was greater than the control group. While exploratory analysis from the 2012 experiment suggested the ads were effective among those who had a demonstrated a prior history of clicking on online advertising, the follow-up 2013 experiment failed to confirm this finding. These results suggest that while online advertising can reach young voters, it may not be a panacea for encouraging them to vote. This research also underscores the importance of replications of even large-scale experimental findings.