Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000
Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000
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DOI：
10.1136/tc.12.1.79
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发表时间：
2003-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lopez, AD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ezzati, M;Lopez, AD
目的：目前的吸烟流行率，即使有数据可查，也不能很好地代表吸烟的累积危害，这取决于几个因素，包括开始吸烟的年龄、吸烟持续时间、每天吸烟的数量、吸入程度和香烟的特性，如焦油和尼古丁含量或过滤嘴类型。方法：我们扩展了Peto-Lopez吸烟影响比方法，以估计世界不同地区吸烟的累积危害。肺癌死亡率数据来自全球疾病负担死亡率数据库。美国癌症协会癌症预防研究，第11期（CPS-II），随访时间为1982年至1988年，是参考人群。对于全球应用的方法，从不吸烟者肺癌死亡率的基础上选择的估计使用煤炭的家庭能源在每个region.Results：男性在工业化国家的欧洲，北美和西太平洋地区的吸烟的最大累积危害。发展中世界许多地区的青年和中年男性也有很大的吸烟风险。吸烟对妇女的累积危害最高的是在北美其次是European.Conclusions：在没有详细的吸烟流行率和历史数据的情况下，肺癌死亡率提供了一个强大的指标吸烟的累积危害。在发展中国家，这些危害目前更多地集中在青年和中年男性中。
Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type.Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region.Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe.Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.