Was the Extremely Wet Winter of 2018/19 in the Lower Reach of the Yangtze River Driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation?
Was the Extremely Wet Winter of 2018/19 in the Lower Reach of the Yangtze River Driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation?
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2018/19年长江下游特大湿润冬季是厄尔尼诺南方涛动驱动的吗？
DOI：
10.1002/joc.6591
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Renguang Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu Yunyun;Zeng-Zhen Hu;Renguang Wu
2018/19年冬季，中国长江下游地区出现了持续时间长、降水量偏多的情况。这种极端事件发生在全球变暖背景下的厄尔尼诺成熟阶段，因此引起了社会和气候界的高度关注。据推测，这一极端事件是由厄尔尼诺现象驱动的。在这项工作中，基于观测诊断和实时模式预报，我们调查的海洋强迫的贡献和可预测性的这一事件。认为热带大西洋变暖、年代际变化和热带太平洋中部变暖（与太平洋中部而不是东太平洋厄尔尼诺有关）是导致极端事件的三个主要因素。除了与中太平洋厄尔尼诺现象有关的海表温度异常的公认影响外，热带大西洋变暖通过从热带大西洋延伸到东亚的全球纬向波型对南极-欧亚环流变化作出了重要贡献。此外，气候模式成功地预测了LRYR在短期（1-5个月）领先的实时预测湿型，并捕捉到观测到的统计关系LRYR冬季降水和热带太平洋中部和赤道大西洋海温异常。这些结果表明，这样的事件在某种程度上是可以预测的。
In the winter of 2018/19, the lower reach of the Yangtze River (LRYR) of China experienced an excessive amount of precipitation with a long duration. Such an extreme event occurred in the mature phase of an El Niño under the background of global warming, and thus, attracted great attention in the society and climate community. Presumably, this extreme event was driven by the El Niño. In this work, based on observational diagnoses and real-time model forecasts, we investigate the contributions of oceanic forcing and the predictability of this event. It is argued that tropical Atlantic warming, interdecadal variation, and central tropical Pacific warming (associated with central Pacific instead of eastern Pacific El Niño) are three major factors leading to the extreme event. In addition to the recognized impact from sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) associated with central Pacific El Niño, tropical Atlantic warming makes an important contribution to the Atlantic-Eurasian circulation change through a global zonal wave pattern extending from the tropical Atlantic to East Asia. Moreover, a climate model successfully predicted the wet pattern in LRYR in short (1-5 month) lead real-time predictions, and captured the observed statistical relationship between the winter precipitation in LRYR and the SSTA in the central tropical Pacific and equatorial Atlantic Oceans. These results indicate that such an event is predictable to some extent.