Hierarchical forecasting: issues and use guidelines
Hierarchical forecasting: issues and use guidelines
复制标题
分层预测：问题和使用指南
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
G. Fliedner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Fliedner
为了提供适当的需求预测信息，考虑到组织内不同的管理水平和职能学科，对基于家庭的预测的依赖正在增加。基于家庭的方法，有时被称为分层预测（HF），是基于将项目聚合到家庭中的策略。高频系统能够为项目及其各自的家庭提供预测。高频系统的目标包括提高预报性能和减少总体预报负担。迄今为止，一些研究为高频系统的结构设计提供了实用的指导。本文的主要目的是总结这些指导方针。首先，对HF过程进行了解释。在这个解释中，重要的系统参数和战略选择，允许高频系统的自定义配置被确定。其次，回顾了相关的基于家庭的预测研究。确定了本研究中提出的重要问题和结论。第三，研究文献中报道的关于使用心衰方法的实用指南得到了清晰的描述。由于各种系统参数和战略过程选择对绩效的影响仍不清楚，本文最后提出了对未来研究的建议。
In order to provide the appropriate demand forecast information given various managerial levels and functional disciplines within organizations, reliance on family‐based forecasting is increasing. The family‐based approach, sometimes referred to as hierarchical forecasting (HF), is based on a strategy of aggregating items into families. HF systems are capable of providing forecasts for items and their respective families. The objectives of HF systems, include improved forecast performance and a reduction in the overall forecasting burden. To date, several studies have offered practical guidelines for the structural design of HF systems. The primary purpose of this paper is to summarize these guidelines. First, an explanation of the HF process is provided. In this explanation, important system parameters and strategic choices, which allow for the custom configuration of HF systems are identified. Second, the relevant family‐based forecast research is reviewed. The important issues addressed and the conclusions presented in this research are identified. Third, practical guidelines regarding the use of a HF approach that have been reported in the research literature are clearly delineated. With much still unknown regarding the performance impact of various system parameter and strategic process choices, the paper concludes with suggestions for future research.