Benchmark Dose Analysis via Nonparametric Regression Modeling.

Benchmark Dose Analysis via Nonparametric Regression Modeling.
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DOI:
10.1111/risa.12066
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发表时间:
2014-01
期刊:
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Lin L
Lin L
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Piegorsch WW;Xiong H;Bhattacharya RN;Lin L

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传统的定量风险评估中的基准剂量(BMD)估计是基于参数剂量-反应模型。然而,众所周知的问题是,如果所选参数模型不确定和/或指定错误,则可能导致不准确和可能不安全的低剂量推断。我们描述了一种非参数方法估计BMD与定量响应数据的基础上保序回归方法,并研究使用相应的,非参数,基于Bootstrap的置信限的BMD。我们通过模拟研究探索了置信限的小样本性质,并以癌症风险评估为例说明了计算方法。可以看出,这种非参数方法可以提供一个有用的替代BMD估计时,面对的问题,参数模型的不确定性。
Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose-response modeling. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal-response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap-based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty.
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