A Scenario-Based Framework for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Potential Droughts
A Scenario-Based Framework for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Potential Droughts
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DOI：
10.1142/s2382624x17500072
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Hall, Jim W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Freire-Gonzalez, Jaume;Decker, Christopher A.;Hall, Jim W.
在关于应对未来人口和气候变化的政策讨论中，估计干旱的潜在经济影响日益突出。我们开发了一个基于情景的分析框架，用于在一系列假定的气候和政策条件下估计干旱的经济影响。模拟的情景考虑了关于干旱事件的不同假设，包括：干旱的来源（绿水或蓝水）、暂时性，以及关键的长期和短期决策选择。将该框架应用于英国经济，我们估计，根据干旱事件的严重程度和短期政策选择，其影响范围可能在总产量的0.35%到4.3%之间。不同的长期政策选择可以减轻对严重程度和持续时间相似的干旱事件的影响。
Estimating the potential economic impacts of drought is increasingly prominent in policy discussions on resilience to future population and climate changes. We develop a scenario-based analytical framework for estimating the economic impacts of droughts under a range of assumed climate and policy conditions. The scenarios modeled take account of different assumptions regarding a drought event, including: the source of the drought (green or blue water), temporality, and critically, long-term and short-term policy-making choices. Applying the framework to the UK economy we estimate that, depending on the severity of the drought event and short-term policy choices, the impacts could range from 0.35% to 4.3% of total output in terms of total production. Different long-term policy choices could mitigate the impacts for drought events with similar severity and duration.