Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models
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DOI：
10.1007/s11111-013-0186-8
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abel, Guy;Bijak, Jakub;Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
在今后50年中，环境变化对人类生计的潜在影响可能是巨大的，其中一个可能的后果是人类流动性的增加。本文探讨了如何移民到英国的环境因素的后果，其他地方的不确定性，可以使用贝叶斯模型的方法进行预测。预测的概念理解是先进的三种方式。首先，分析被认为是第一次，贝叶斯建模方法已尝试在环境流动性。其次，本文认为这种方法的权宜之计，通过比较的反应，德尔菲调查与传统的期望在研究文献中的环境流动性。最后，在德尔菲调查中提供的专家证据的价值和假设进行了询问，以说明有限的一套条件下，预测的环境流动性，如本文所述，可能举行。
Over the next 50 years, the potential impact of environmental change on human livelihoods could be considerable, with one possible consequence being increased levels of human mobility. This paper explores how uncertainty about the level of immigration to the United Kingdom as a consequence of environmental factors elsewhere may be forecast using a methodology involving Bayesian models. The conceptual understanding of forecasting is advanced in three ways. First, the analysis is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper considers the expediency of this approach by comparing the responses to a Delphi survey with conventional expectations about environmental mobility in the research literature. Finally, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold.