The Effects of Stringent and Mild Interventions for Coronavirus Pandemic
The Effects of Stringent and Mild Interventions for Coronavirus Pandemic
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严格和温和干预措施对冠状病毒大流行的影响
DOI：
10.1080/01621459.2021.1897015
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发表时间：
2021-04-21
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wang, Xueqin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tian, Ting;Tan, Jianbin;Wang, Xueqin
摘要COVID-19大流行在全球范围内造成了严重的公共卫生后果。COVID-19的许多干预措施已经实施。评估COVID-19大流行的干预措施的效果具有重大的公共卫生和社会意义。借助综合控制方法、回归不连续性和状态空间房室模型，我们评估了干预政策的治疗效果和阶段性效果。我们发现，温州的广泛严格干预和上海的温和干预对遏制疫情蔓延的治疗效果具有统计学意义。如果这些减少效应没有被激活，温州和上海的预期阳性个体数量将分别在2020年2月5日和2020年2月4日增加2.18倍和7.69倍。或者，回归不连续性优雅地确定了严格（p值：<0.001）和温和的干预措施（p值：0.024）降低了流行病的严重程度。在不同干预措施的房室模型下，我们理解了实施干预措施的重要性。在疫情初期，对COVID-19的最高级别警报是实际和关键的。此外，一旦COVID-19继续蔓延，则有必要实施身体╱社交距离政策。如果采取适当的控制措施，疫情将得到有效和早期的控制。本文的补充材料，包括可用于复制作品的材料的标准化描述，可作为在线补充。
Abstract The pandemic of COVID-19 has caused severe public health consequences around the world. Many interventions of COVID-19 have been implemented. It is of great public health and social importance to evaluate the effects of interventions in the pandemic of COVID-19. With the help of a synthetic control method, the regression discontinuity, and a state-space compartmental model, we evaluated the treatment and stagewise effects of the intervention policies. We found statistically significant treatment effects of broad stringent interventions in Wenzhou and mild interventions in Shanghai to subdue the epidemic’s spread. If those reduction effects were not activated, the expected number of positive individuals would increase by 2.18 times on February 5, 2020, for Wenzhou and 7.69 times on February 4, 2020, for Shanghai, respectively. Alternatively, regression discontinuity elegantly identified the stringent (p-value: <0.001) and mild interventions (p-value: 0.024) lowered the severity of the epidemic. Under the compartmental modeling for different interventions, we understood the importance of implementing the interventions. The highest level alert to COVID-19 was practical and crucial at the early stage of the epidemic. Furthermore, the physical/social distancing policy was necessary once the spread of COVID-19 continued. If appropriate control measures were implemented, then epidemic would be under control effectively and early. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.