Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge
Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01553.x
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Possingham, Hugh P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McDonald-Madden, Eve;Baxter, Peter W. J.;Possingham, Hugh P.
1.在保护决策方面，我们在有限的资金范围内运作。此外，我们经常假设管理影响和我们在管理上的投资之间存在特定的关系。然而，这些关系的结构很少被确定地知道-存在模型不确定性。我们研究了保护管理中的两个基本限制因素，金钱和知识，如何影响最优决策。我们使用信息缺口决策理论，以找到最大限度地提高现存的受威胁的物种，是最免疫失败，由于模型的不确定性的亚群的数量的策略。3.随着模型不确定性的增加，每种策略的性能都会下降.对模型不确定性最稳健的策略不仅取决于被认为是可接受的性能，还取决于可用资金和考虑灭绝的时间范围。合成与应用。我们研究了模型的不确定性对保护决策的影响，以及可用的保护资金是如何影响的。我们表明，亚群分流可以是一个强大的决策的自然结果。我们强调需要管理人员考虑分流不仅仅是放弃，但作为一种工具，以确保物种的持久性，鉴于大多数保护要求的紧迫性，不确定性和保护资金的状态不佳。我们说明了这一理论的一个具体的应用分配资金，以减少偷猎的影响，在Kerinci Seblat国家公园的苏门答腊虎虎。
1. In conservation decision-making, we operate within the confines of limited funding. Furthermore, we often assume particular relationships between management impact and our investment in management. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty - there is model uncertainty. We investigate how these two fundamentally limiting factors in conservation management, money and knowledge, impact optimal decision-making.2. We use information-gap decision theory to find strategies for maximizing the number of extant subpopulations of a threatened species that are most immune to failure due to model uncertainty. We thus find a robust framework for exploring optimal decision-making.3.The performance of every strategy decreases as model uncertainty increases.4. The strategy most robust to model uncertainty depends not only on what performance is perceived to be acceptable but also on available funding and the time horizon over which extinction is considered.5. Synthesis and applications. We investigate the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that subpopulation triage can be a natural consequence of robust decision-making. We highlight the need for managers to consider triage not as merely giving up, but as a tool for ensuring species persistence in light of the urgency of most conservation requirements, uncertainty and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park.