Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation.
Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation.
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Levy 噪声下不连续动力系统的亚稳定性：亚马逊植被案例研究
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-07686-8
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发表时间：
2017-08-24
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kurths J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Serdukova L;Zheng Y;Duan J;Kurths J
对于地球气候系统中的关键因素，最重要的问题是针对随机扰动的理想状态有多稳定。极端生物和气候事件对热带雨林构成严重危害。它们的局部影响是极其随机的，很难衡量。此外，林木对这种扰动的反应的方向和强度是未知的，特别是考虑到缺乏有效的动态植被模型来评估森林树木覆盖随时间的变化。在这项研究中，我们考虑的随机性在森林树木的数学模型，通过纳入不确定性通过随机微分方程。根据实地证据，火灾和干旱之间的相互作用是描述亚马逊东南部森林突然退化的更直接的机制。在亚马逊植被系统模型中，我们考虑了对称的α稳定的L摄动。我们报告了亚稳定肥沃森林状态的稳定性分析结果。我们认为，即使是对森林状态稳定的极小威胁，也代表了L的低强度大跳跃噪声，可解释为发生在非干旱年的火灾。在多年的严重干旱期间，高强度的火灾极大地加速了森林和稀树草原之间的过渡。
For the tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, the most important issue to address is how stable is the desirable state against random perturbations. Extreme biotic and climatic events pose severe hazards to tropical rainforests. Their local effects are extremely stochastic and difficult to measure. Moreover, the direction and intensity of the response of forest trees to such perturbations are unknown, especially given the lack of efficient dynamical vegetation models to evaluate forest tree cover changes over time. In this study, we consider randomness in the mathematical modelling of forest trees by incorporating uncertainty through a stochastic differential equation. According to field-based evidence, the interactions between fires and droughts are a more direct mechanism that may describe sudden forest degradation in the south-eastern Amazon. In modeling the Amazonian vegetation system, we include symmetric α-stable Lévy perturbations. We report results of stability analysis of the metastable fertile forest state. We conclude that even a very slight threat to the forest state stability represents L´evy noise with large jumps of low intensity, that can be interpreted as a fire occurring in a non-drought year. During years of severe drought, high-intensity fires significantly accelerate the transition between a forest and savanna state.
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影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Friedrichs, K. O.
通讯作者：
Friedrichs, K. O.
影响因子：
2
作者：
OIKAWA T
通讯作者：
OIKAWA T
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0802430105
发表时间：
2008-09-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Dakos, Vasilis;Scheffer, Marten;Held, Hermann
通讯作者：
Held, Hermann
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Beatson, R. K.;Bui, H.-Q.
通讯作者：
Bui, H.-Q.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Deng, Zhi-Liang;Fu, Chu-Li;Zhang, Yuan-Xiang
通讯作者：
Zhang, Yuan-Xiang