The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil.
The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil.
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-015-1009-7
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发表时间：
2016-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Bell ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Son JY;Gouveia N;Bravo MA;de Freitas CU;Bell ML
了解天气如何影响健康至关重要，特别是在气候变化的情况下；然而，对亚热带地区的研究相对较少。我们研究了巴西S的死亡率在14.5年(1996年至2010年)期间如何受到寒冷、热浪和热浪的影响。我们使用过度分散的广义线性模型来估计与热和冷相关的死亡率，并使用贝叶斯分层模型来估计热浪特征(强度、持续时间和季节时间)的总体影响和修正。按死因和个人特征(性别、年龄、教育程度、婚姻状况和死亡地点)进行分层分析。在这个气候条件温和的亚热带城市，寒冷对死亡率的影响似乎高于热效应。高温与呼吸系统死亡率相关，寒冷与心血管死亡率相关。总死亡率在第99个百分位数(热效应)比第90个百分位数(热效应)高6.1%(95%可信区间4.7，7.6%)，比第10个百分位数(冷效应)高8.6%(6.2，11.1%)。女性和没有接受过热效应教育的人和男性的风险更高。老年人、寡妇和非医院死亡有较高的中暑和感冒死亡风险。在总死亡率、心血管死亡率和呼吸系统死亡率方面，热浪期间的死亡率高于非热浪日。我们的发现表明，S圣保罗的死亡率与寒冷和炎热都有关，某些亚群更容易受到影响。
Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1% (95% confidence interval 4.7, 7.6%) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6% (6.2, 11.1%) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.