Potential impact of global climate change on species richness of long-distance migrants
Potential impact of global climate change on species richness of long-distance migrants
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01389.x
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发表时间：
2003-04-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Böhning-Gaese, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lemoine, N;Böhning-Gaese, K
几乎没有证据表明全球气候变化导致生态群落结构的系统性变化。对于鸟类群落，如果留鸟受益于暖冬，并对迁徙者施加越来越大的竞争压力，人们预计暖冬将导致长途迁徙者数量的下降。为了研究全球气候变化对长距离迁徙的潜在影响，我们将欧洲595个网格单元中所有陆地鸟类的数量与长距离迁徙、短距离迁徙和居民的数量和比例进行了关联。我们使用的平均温度最冷的月份，平均春季温度和春季降水量的措施，在冬季和繁殖期的气候条件。随着冬季气温的升高、春季气温的降低和春季降水量的增加，长距离迁徙的数量和比例呈下降趋势。我们使用这种空间关系的鸟类群落结构和气候在欧洲的博登湖地区，中欧，两个人口普查期间（1980-1981年和1990-1992年）之间的鸟类群落的变化进行预测。两次普查期间，该地区冬季气温显著上升，而春季气温和降水量没有变化。正如模型预测的那样，两次人口普查之间，长途流动人口的比例下降，短途流动人口和居民的人数和比例增加。在博登湖地区的长距离移民的显着下降的幅度可以用观察到的气候变化来解释。我们的研究结果表明，越来越温暖的冬天可能会对长途迁徙的鸟类构成比其他鸟类更严重的威胁。
Little evidence exists demonstrating that global climate change leads to systematic changes in the structure of ecological communities. For avian communities, one would expect warmer winters to lead to declines in numbers of long-distance migrants if resident birds benefit from warmer winters and impose increasing competitive pressure on migrants. To study the potential influence of global climate change on long-distance migrants, we correlated the number of all species of land birds and the number and proportion of long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants, and residents in 595 grid cells across Europe. We used mean temperature of the coldest month, mean spring temperature, and spring precipitation as measures of climatic conditions in winter and during the breeding period. The number and proportion of long-distance migrants decreased with increasing winter temperature, decreasing spring temperature, and increasing spring precipitation. We used this spatial relationship between bird community structure and climate in Europe to make predictions about changes in bird communities of the Lake Constance region, Central Europe, between two census periods (1980-1981 and 1990-1992). Winter temperature in this region increased significantly between the two censuses, whereas spring temperature and precipitation did not change. As predicted from the models, the proportion of long-distance migrants decreased and the number and proportion of short-distance migrants and residents increased between the two censuses. The significant declines of the long-distance migrants in the Lake Constance region are of a magnitude that can be explained by the observed climate change. Our results suggest that increasingly warmer winters may pose a more severe threat to long-distance migrants than to the other bird groups.