Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: Opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health
Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: Opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health
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预测坦桑尼亚北部牧民对恶性卡他热疫苗的使用情况：改善生计和生态系统健康的机会
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107189
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Decker C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Decker C
恶性卡他热（MCF）由无症状角马传播的病毒引起，是一种致命的牛疾病，威胁着非洲许多地区的畜牧业生计和粮食安全。许多牧群所有者通过将牛群移离感染热点来减少传播风险，但这给他们的家庭带来了相当大的经济负担。部分保护性牛疫苗的出现为疾病预防开辟了新的选择。在坦桑尼亚北方的牧民家庭的研究中，我们使用规定的偏好选择模型来调查牧民可能会如何应对这种疫苗的可用性。我们发现，畜群所有者接种疫苗的可能性很高，在疫苗成本较高时下降。在接种疫苗的牛被耳标的情况下，以及通过私人兽医提供疫苗的情况下，接受率随着更有效的疫苗而增加。通过分析归一化密度植被指数（NDVI）的数据，我们发现，报告的MCF发病率超过5年是最高的平均值和年际变化的植被绿度是相对较低的地区，畜群规模较小。降雨量减少和牲畜活动受到更大限制的趋势表明，通过传统的远离牛羚的活动来避免MCF将变得更具挑战性，对MCF疫苗的需求可能会增加。
Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), caused by a virus transmitted from asymptomatic wildebeest, is a lethal disease in cattle that threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent of a partially-protective vaccine for cattle opens up new options for disease prevention. In a study of pastoral households in northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond to the availability of such a vaccine. We show a high probability of likely vaccine uptake by herd owners, declining at higher vaccine costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, in situations where vaccinated cattle are ear-tagged, and where vaccine is delivered through private vets. Through analysis of Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we show that the reported MCF incidence over 5 years is highest in areas where the mean and interannual varibility in vegetative greeness is relatively low and where herds sizes are smaller. Trends towards lower rainfall and greater landscape-level constraints on cattle movement suggest that MCF avoidance through traditional movement away from wildebeest will become more challenging and that demand for an MCF vaccine will likely increase.