A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic.
A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5
复制
发表时间：
2020-10-09
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
di Bernardo M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Della Rossa F;Salzano D;Di Meglio A;De Lellis F;Coraggio M;Calabrese C;Guarino A;Cardona-Rivera R;De Lellis P;Liuzza D;Lo Iudice F;Russo G;di Bernardo M
新冠肺炎疫情对意大利的打击尤其严重，导致意大利实施了严格的国家封锁规定。以前在国家一级进行的模拟研究忽略了这样一个事实，即意大利被划分为几个行政区，这些行政区可以独立地监督自己在意大利国家卫生服务体系中的份额。在这里，我们表明，地区之间的异质性对于了解疫情的传播和设计有效的战略来控制疾病至关重要。我们将意大利建模为一个地区网络，并根据自最初疫情爆发以来两个多月的实际数据对每个地区的模型进行参数化。我们确认国家封锁战略在区域一级的有效性，并建议采取协调一致的区域干预措施，以防止未来的国家封锁，同时避免区域卫生系统饱和并减轻对费用的影响。我们的研究和方法可以很容易地扩展到其他粒度级别，以支持政策制定者和决策者。目前正在进行的一场全球辩论涉及当前大流行中有效和可持续的封锁解除战略。在这里，作者在与医疗保健相关的空间尺度上实施了一个网络模型，以表明协调的当地战略可以有效地遏制疾病的进一步复发。
The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity to support policy- and decision-makers. An ongoing global debate concerns effective and sustainable lockdown release strategies in the current pandemic. Here, the authors implement a network model at healthcare-relevant spatial scale to show that coordinated local strategies can be effective in containing further resurgence of the disease.