Communicating uncertainty: Framing effects on responses to vague probabilities
Communicating uncertainty: Framing effects on responses to vague probabilities
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DOI：
10.1006/obhd.1997.2715
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发表时间：
1997-07-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kuhn, KM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuhn, KM
大多数现实世界的冒险决策都是基于不精确的概率。尽管人们通常表现出对模糊的厌恶，表现得好像模糊指定的概率比精确指定的概率更糟糕，但模糊寻求也会发生。先前对模糊偏好的解释是基于个体差异和对极端概率的回归信念，很少有研究考察模糊向决策者传达的方式变化的影响。本研究表明，在模糊性操作化的调节下，得失框架影响人们对概率估计模糊性的反应。受试者阅读描述消费者购买、组织营销决策和医疗的场景，并在精确或模糊描述概率的选项之间表达偏好。模糊性要么作为可能值的范围进行操作，要么作为单点估计的口头限定。消极框架与对模糊前景的更大偏好有关，除非模糊是用一个数值范围来描述的，其中较高的值首先出现，这表明存在实质性的首要顺序效应。第二个实验表明，消极框架让人们对模糊概率的可能性做出更有利的推断。(C) 1997学术出版社。
Most real-world risky decisions are based on imprecise probabilities. Although people generally demonstrate vagueness aversion, behaving as if vaguely specified probabilities are worse than comparable precisely specified probabilities, vagueness seeking also occurs. Previous explanations of vagueness preferences have been based on individual differences and regressive beliefs about extreme probabilities, and little research has examined the effect of changes in the way vagueness is communicated to the decision maker. The present study demonstrates that gain/loss framing, moderated by the operationalization of vagueness, influences how people respond to vagueness about a probability estimate. Subjects read scenarios describing consumer purchases, organizational marketing decisions, and medical treatments, and expressed preference between options having either precisely or vaguely described probabilities. Vagueness was operationalized either as a range of possible values or as verbal qualification of a single point estimate. Negative framing was associated with greater preference for vague prospects, unless vagueness was described by a numerical range with the higher value presented first, indicating a substantial primacy order effect. A second experiment demonstrates that negative framing led people to make more favorable inferences about the likelihoods of vague probabilities. (C) 1997 Academic Press.