Decreasing control of precipitation on grassland spring phenology in temperate China
Decreasing control of precipitation on grassland spring phenology in temperate China
复制标题
减少降水对中国温带草原春季物候的控制
DOI：
10.1111/geb.13234
复制
发表时间：
2020-12-04
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
De Boeck, Hans J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Yongshuo H.;Zhou, Xuancheng;De Boeck, Hans J.
目的植被物候对气候变化高度敏感。温带草原春季物候的时间主要受温度和降水的调节。本研究的目的是确定在持续的气候变化下调节植被物候的主要因素是否发生了变化及其潜在机制。位置中国温带半干旱草原。时间段1982 - 2015。主要类群研究温带草原。方法我们使用五种标准方法从卫星导出的归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）中提取季节开始（SOS）日期。结果在整个1982 - 2015年研究期间，这些半干旱草原的SOS日期没有显著变化，但年际变化从第一个子期[1982 - 1998，8.8 +/-1.1天（平均值+/-SE）]至第二子期（1999 - 2015，10.3 +/-1.1天）。有趣的是，我们发现调节SOS的主要因素从1982 - 1998年的降水转移到1999 - 2015年的温度。具体来说，我们发现，在第一个时期，67.5%的研究区域的SOS是由降水决定的（平均偏相关系数，r = 0.58 +/-0.16），而在第二阶段，75.0%的研究区的主要调节因子是温度（r = 0.61 +/-0.14）.主要结论春季物候的主要驱动力的变化主要归因于季前降水的显着增加。我们的研究表明，在持续的气候变化下，春季物候对气候因子的响应可能会发生变化。这种转变应该在物候学模型中得到解决，以更好地模拟草原物候，以及它对未来气候条件下碳和水循环的影响。
Aim Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change. The timing of spring phenology in temperate grasslands is regulated primarily by temperature and precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine whether the primary factor regulating vegetation phenology has changed under ongoing climate change and the underlying mechanisms.Location Temperate semi-dry grasslands in China.Time period 1982-2015.Major taxa studied Temperate grassland.Methods We extracted start of season (SOS) dates using five standard methods from satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and determined the primary factor regulating spring phenology using partial correlation analysis.Results The SOS date did not change significantly during the entire 1982-2015 study period in these semi-dry grasslands, but interannual variability increased significantly from the first subperiod [1982-1998, 8.8 +/- 1.1 days (mean +/- SE)] to the second subperiod (1999-2015, 10.3 +/- 1.1 days). Interestingly, we found that the primary factor regulating SOS shifted from precipitation during 1982-1998 to temperature during 1999-2015. Specifically, we found that during the first period, the SOS in 67.5% of the study area was determined by precipitation (mean partial correlation coefficient, r = 0.58 +/- 0.16), but during the second period the main regulating factor in 75.0% of the study area was temperature (r = 0.61 +/- 0.14).Main conclusions The change in the primary driver of spring phenology was attributed mainly to significant increases in preseason precipitation. Our study highlights that the response of spring phenology to climatic factors might change under ongoing climate change. This shift should be addressed in phenology models to simulate grassland phenology better, in addition to its impact on carbon and water cycles in future climate conditions.