Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process
Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-11-460-2007
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Beven, Keith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beven, Keith
开发各地的综合环境模型，例如在欧洲执行水框架指令的要求，受到目前理解和数据可用性的限制。这类模型的可能性提出了系统设计要求的问题，即在表示地点时，是否需要将建模作为一种学习和数据同化过程，而地点很可能被视为这类系统中的活动物体。模型预测中的不确定性不仅提出了关于不同类型数据在描述地点和限制预测不确定性方面的价值的问题，而且还提出了如何最好地向用户和决策者呈现这种不确定预测的谱系的问题。
Developing integrated environmental models of everywhere such as are demanded by the requirements of, for example, implementing the Water Framework Directive in Europe, is constrained by the limitations of current understanding and data availability. The possibility of such models raises questions about system design requirements to allow modelling as a learning and data assimilation process in the representation of places, which might well be treated as active objects in such a system. Uncertainty in model predictions not only poses issues about the value of different types of data in characterising places and constraining predictive uncertainty but also about how best to present the pedigree of such uncertain predictions to users and decision-makers.