Estimating the Economic Cost of One of the World's Major Insect Pests, Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Just How Long Is a Piece of String?
Estimating the Economic Cost of One of the World's Major Insect Pests, Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Just How Long Is a Piece of String?
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DOI：
10.1603/ec12107
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Furlong, Michael J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zalucki, Myron P.;Shabbir, Asad;Furlong, Michael J.
自1993年以来，世界范围内小菜蛾（Plutella xylostella， L.）的年成本。（鳞翅目：扁蛾科），常规防治费用为10亿美元。这一估计需要更新和纳入产量损失，以反映这种有害生物目前给世界经济造成的总成本。我们提出了一项分析，根据一系列必要但合理的假设，估计当前的成本可能是多少。我们使用了一个现有的气候驱动的小菜蛾分布和丰度模型、联合国粮农组织国家芸苔作物生产数据和各种管理方案来支撑成本估算。根据管理成本计算，“串的长度”在13亿至23亿美元之间。但是，如果将有害生物的残余损害包括在内，则费用估计将更高；保守估计，小菜蛾对所有作物造成5%的产量损失，使与该害虫有关的总成本再增加27亿美元。因此，保守估计，与小菜蛾管理相关的总成本为40亿至50亿美元。下界代表虫害管理人员仅根据气候驱动的小菜蛾丰度做出的理性决策。较高的估计值是由于蔬菜作物每周施用杀虫剂的较为正常的做法，以及油菜在作物周期中至少施用一次杀虫剂的假设。读者可以自行决定实际成本可能是多少，因为我们提供了国家数据，以便进一步解释。我们的分析表明，加大力度实施哪怕是基本的虫害综合管理也会大大减少杀虫剂的投入，减少对环境的负面影响，每年节省数亿美元。
Since 1993, the annual worldwide cost of diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), control has been routinely quoted to be US$1 billion. This estimate requires updating and incorporation of yield losses to reflect current total costs of the pest to the world economy. We present an analysis that estimates what the present costs are likely to be based on a set of necessary, but reasoned, assumptions. We use an existing climate driven model for diamondback moth distribution and abundance, the Food and Agriculture Organization country Brassica crop production data and various management scenarios to bracket the cost estimates. The "length of the string" is somewhere between US$1.3 billion and US$2.3 billion based on management costs. However, if residual pest damage is included then the cost estimates will be even higher; a conservative estimate of 5% diamondback moth-induced yield loss to all crops adds another US$2.7 billion to the total costs associated with the pest. A conservative estimate of total costs associated with diamondback moth management is thus US$4 billion-US$5 billion. The lower bound represents rational decision making by pest managers based on diamondback moth abundance driven by climate only. The upper estimate is due to the more normal practice of weekly insecticide application to vegetable crops and the assumption that canola (Brassica napus L.) is treated with insecticide at least once during the crop cycle. Readers can decide for themselves what the real cost is likely to be because we provide country data for further interpretation. Our analysis suggests that greater efforts at implementation of even basic integrated pest management would reduce insecticide inputs considerably, reducing negative environmental impacts and saving many hundreds of millions of dollars annually.