Sex‐specific population dynamics of ocelots in Belize using open population spatial capture–recapture
Sex‐specific population dynamics of ocelots in Belize using open population spatial capture–recapture
复制标题
使用开放种群空间捕获-重新捕获伯利兹豹猫的性别特异性种群动态
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.2792
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
M. Kelly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christopher B. Satter;B. Augustine;B. Harmsen;R. Foster;M. Kelly
我们使用开放种群，空间捕获-再捕获（SCR）模型来估计伯利兹五个地点的豹猫（豹猫）的性别特异性密度、存活率、人均招募和种群增长率，每个地点的数据高达12年。开放的种群SCR模型使我们能够使用生态现实的、空间明确的运动模型将生存和招募从迁移中分离出来。4个阔叶林样地雄性和雌性的年存活率分别为0.73 ~ 0.84和0.81 ~ 0.87，性别差异不明显。4个阔叶林样地的年人均招募量估计为雄性0.06-0.08新兵/N，雌性0.09-0.12新兵/N，同样没有明显的性别差异。在一个主要由雄性组成的松林地点，生存和招募的估计与阔叶地点相似。阔叶林样地种群密度为6.5 ~ 14.7只/100 km²，松林样地种群密度为0.9 ~ 2.5只/100 km²，表明阔叶林样地存在雌性偏倚性比，松林样地存在雄性偏倚性比。我们还发现强有力的证据表明，阔叶样地的雌树的年内空间利用小于雄树，而松林样地的年内空间利用大于阔叶样地。阔叶树地的年间迁迁与年内空间利用具有相似的空间尺度，这与哲学一致。我们发现在4个阔叶地中有2个有少量种群下降的证据（后验概率> 0.9）；然而，考虑到下降幅度的不确定性，我们建议继续监测这些站点以增加站点年，并进一步精确估计人口增长率。在大的空间和时间尺度上估计人口参数对于为今后的比较建立可靠的基线估计和了解人口动态的变化是重要的。我们收集的这些长期数据集对于生活在低密度和大空间尺度下的长寿物种特别重要，在这些地方，任何一年都没有多少个体暴露于捕获。
We used open population, spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models to estimate sex‐specific density, survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rate of ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) at five sites in Belize with up to 12 yr of data per site. Open population SCR models enabled us to separate survival and recruitment from migration using an ecologically realistic, spatially explicit movement model. Yearly survival probability across 4 broadleaf forest sites was estimated at 0.73–0.84 for males and 0.81–0.87 for females, with no clear indication of sex differences. Yearly per capita recruitment was estimated across four broadleaf forest sites at 0.06–0.08 recruits/N for males and 0.09–0.12 recruits/N for females, again with no clear indication of sex differences. At a pine forest site with a population comprised largely of males, survival and recruitment estimates were similar to the broadleaf sites. Population densities in the broadleaf forest sites ranged from 6.5 to 14.7 ocelots/100 km², and 0.9–2.5 ocelots/100 km² in the pine forest site, with strong evidence of a female‐biased sex ratio in the broadleaf sites and a male‐biased sex ratio in the pine forest site. We also found strong evidence that female within‐year space use at the broadleaf sites was smaller than that of males, and that within‐year space use at the pine forest site was larger than that at broadleaf sites. Between‐year home‐range relocation at broadleaf sites was of a similar spatial scale as within‐year space use, consistent with philopatry. We found evidence of a small population decline (posterior probability > 0.9) at two of four broadleaf sites; however, given the level of uncertainty about decline magnitudes, we suggest continued monitoring of these sites to increase site‐years and gain further precision on population growth rate estimates. Estimating demographic parameters at large spatial and temporal scales is important for establishing reliable baseline estimates for future comparison and for understanding changes in population dynamics. Long‐term data sets like those we collected are of particular importance for long‐lived species living at low densities and large spatial scales, where not many individuals are exposed to capture in any one year.