Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China
Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China
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中国武汉市 2019 年冠状病毒病病例数的相位调整估计
DOI：
10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0
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发表时间：
2020-02-24
期刊：
影响因子：
33.5
通讯作者：
Cai, Yong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Huwen;Wang, Zezhou;Cai, Yong
2019年12月，中国湖北省武汉市发生了由新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2）引起的病毒性肺炎聚集性疫情。自疫情爆发以来，多个研究小组报告了2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的估计R 0，并对此次疫情的早期阶段进行了有价值的预测。在中国实施严格的防控措施后，需要进行新的估计。本文应用传染病动力学SEIR（Susceptible，Exposed，Infectious，and Removed）模型，在两个假设条件下，对武汉市的流行趋势进行了估计。在第一个假设中，Rt被假设为保持在1以上。估计的感染人数将在整个2月份继续增加，没有任何迹象表明Rt = 1.9，2.6或3.1。到2020年2月29日，感染人数将分别达到11，044、70，258和227，989人。在第二个假设中，由于越来越多地实施公共卫生干预，Rt被假设为在不同阶段从高传播水平（Rt= 3.1，2.6和1.9）逐渐降低到低于1（Rt= 0.9或0.5）。根据武汉市采取各级防控措施的日期划分了几个阶段。估计感染人数将在2月下旬达到高峰，即58，077 - 84，520或55，869 - 81，393。感染人数的高峰是否会出现在2020年2月，可能是评估中国目前采取的措施是否充分的重要指标。无论高峰期是否出现，应继续实施武汉目前的严格措施，并在中国其他COVID-19病例较多的地区实施必要的严格公共卫生措施，以将Rtto降至理想水平并控制感染。
An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimatedR0of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions ofRt. In the first assumption,Rtwas assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping withRt= 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption,Rtwas assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt= 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt= 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077–84,520 or 55,869–81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduceRtto an ideal level and control the infection.