How Robust Is the Optimistic Update Bias for Estimating Self-Risk and Population Base Rates?
How Robust Is the Optimistic Update Bias for Estimating Self-Risk and Population Base Rates?
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0098848
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发表时间：
2014-06-10
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Sharot, Tali
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garrett, Neil;Sharot, Tali
人类对自己的未来有着不切实际的乐观预测。这些预测的产生和维护是因为人们在接收到要求在乐观方向上调整的信息时，相对于要求在悲观方向上调整的信息，更容易更新他们的信念。到目前为止，当人们对自我做出估计时，这种更新偏见已经表现出来。在这里，我们研究是否也存在不对称的信念更新时，对人口的基本利率进行估计。我们发现，虽然参与者更新的信念，在人口中的风险以不对称的方式，这种依赖于价更新的基本利率可以解释先验。相比之下，我们表明，乐观的自我更新是一个强大的现象，即使在不同的经验定义的理想信息。
Humans hold unrealistically optimistic predictions of what their future holds. These predictions are generated and maintained as people update their beliefs more readily when receiving information that calls for adjustment in an optimistic direction relative to information that calls for adjustment in a pessimistic direction. Thus far this update bias has been shown when people make estimations regarding the self. Here, we examine whether asymmetric belief updating also exists when making estimations regarding population base rates. We reveal that while participants update beliefs regarding risk in the population in an asymmetric manner, such valence-dependent updating of base rates can be accounted for by priors. In contrast, we show that optimistic updating regarding the self is a robust phenomenon, which holds even under different empirical definitions of desirable information.