Analysis of Water Quality Change and Impacts from Socio-economic Development in Lake Dianchi from 1982 to 2012
Analysis of Water Quality Change and Impacts from Socio-economic Development in Lake Dianchi from 1982 to 2012
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发表时间：
2015
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通讯作者：
Ouyang Zhi-hon
中科院分区：
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作者：
Ouyang Zhi-hon
滇池是著名的高原淡水湖，“九五”以来被列入国家“三河三湖”治理工程。本研究采用Mann-Kendall和Daniel趋势检验分析了1982—2012年滇池外海典型污染物指标(CODMn、BOD5、TN、NH3-N和TP)的年际变化。分析滇池流域人口、人均GDP与CODMn、TN、TP的相关性,阐明社会经济发展对滇池水质变化的影响。结果表明，1988—2012年期间水质指标变化较大。 TN和NH3-N在0. 01显着性水平上呈现显着上升趋势,CODMn和TP有上升趋势但不显着,BOD5几乎没有变化,Mann-Kendall和Daniel的结果基本一致。 TN和CODMn与人口和人均GDP密切相关。社会经济发展是TN和CODMn增加的重要原因。由于磷处理的影响，2000年后TP与人口和人均GDP呈负相关。随着滇池污染治理的稳步推进，特别是《水污染防治“十一五”规划》的实施，社会经济发展对TN、TP的影响有所减弱，磷治理取得了阶段性成果。
Lake Dianchi is a famous plateau freshwater lake,and has been included in the national"The Three Rivers and Three Lakes"treatment project since "the 9th Five-Year Plan". In this study,Mann-Kendall and Daniel trend test are used to analyze interannual variability of typical pollutant indices( CODMn,BOD5,TN,NH3-N and TP) of Waihai of Lake Dianchi in 1982—2012. The correlation between population,GDP per person in Lake Dianchi basin and CODMn,TN and TP is analyzed to clarify the impacts of socio-economic development on water quality change of Lake Dianchi. Results indicate that the indices of water quality changed greatly during the period of 1988—2012. TN and NH3-N showed significant rising trend at 0. 01 significance level,CODMnand TP had an upward trend but not significant,BOD5 was almost not changed,and results of Mann-Kendall and Daniel are basically consistent. TN and CODMnare closely correlated with population and GDP per person. Socio-economic development is an important cause of the increase of TN and CODMn. TP is negatively correlated with population and GDP per person after 2000 year,because of the effects of treatment on phosphorus. With steady progress of Dianchi pollution control,especially the implementation of"the 11 th Five-Year Water Pollution Control Plan",the impacts of socio-economic development on TN,TP have weakened,and initial results have been achieved in phosphorus treatment.