Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies
Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.08.057
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发表时间：
2017-10
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Z. Chalabi;Ai Milojevic;R. Doherty;D. Stevenson;I. MacKenzie;J. Milner;M. Vieno;Martin L Williams;P. Wilkinson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Z. Chalabi;Ai Milojevic;R. Doherty;D. Stevenson;I. MacKenzie;J. Milner;M. Vieno;Martin L Williams;P. Wilkinson
介绍了一个用于评估英国空气质量政策的决策支持系统。它将化学迁移模型、健康影响模型和多标准决策分析框架内的其他影响模型的结果结合起来。作为一种概念验证，军事和民防资源框架被用来评价和比较四个部门（能源和转换工业的燃烧、非工业燃烧厂、公路运输和农业）和六个结果或标准（死亡率、健康不平等、温室气体排放、生物多样性、作物产量和空气质量法律的遵守情况）的理想化减排政策。为了说明军事和民防资源框架的实际使用情况，从作为代理决策者的一些利益攸关方那里得出了这些标准的相对重要性。在原型决策问题中，我们表明，减少工业燃烧（紧随其后的是道路运输和农业）的排放量比同等减少从其他部门考虑到所有的标准时，更有利。讨论了军事和民防资源框架的扩展，以支持决策者在实践中。
A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.