An automated nowcasting system of mesoscale convective systems for the Mediterranean basin using Meteosat imagery. Part II: Verification statistics
An automated nowcasting system of mesoscale convective systems for the Mediterranean basin using Meteosat imagery. Part II: Verification statistics
复制标题
使用气象卫星图像的地中海盆地中尺度对流系统自动临近预报系统。
DOI：
10.1002/met.1281
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
H. Feidas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Kolios;H. Feidas
基于第二代气象卫星（MSG）图像（在第一部分中描述）的中尺度对流系统（MCSs）的临近预报系统应用于109个MCSs确定在地中海地区为16天的温暖季节期间，以统计评估其性能。预测提前期以及预测周期的准确性的依赖关系也进行了研究。这第一次统计验证的系统性能表现出令人鼓舞的预测精度，虽然观察到的准确性逐渐下降与预测的前置时间。一般来说，预报可以接受长达105分钟的持续时间。45分钟的预测范围内，而一个非常好的预测和观测到的MCS之间的空间协议，发现了60分钟的预测范围内的MCS参数得到了非常准确的预测。观察到预报技能略有改善的趋势，进入下一个预报周期。所提出的案例研究表明，在预测MCS的运动和强度的预测系统的价值时，在适当的情况下应用。根据验证结果，提出的预报方案已被证明是一个有价值的工具，在预测的演变暖季孤立MCSs在地中海盆地，即使在较低的边界的中尺度。
A nowcasting system of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) based on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) imagery (described in part I) is applied on 109 MCSs identified over the Mediterranean region for a 16 day warm season period in order to statistically asses its performance. The dependence of the accuracy on forecast lead time as well as on the forecast cycle was also investigated. This first statistical verification of the system performance showed encouraging forecast accuracy although a gradual accuracy degradation is observed with forecast lead time. In general, forecasts can be acceptable up to a 105 min duration. Adequately accurate forecasts of the MCS parameters are obtained for a 45 min forecast range while a very good spatial agreement between forecasted and observed MCSs was found for a 60 min forecast range. A tendency for a slight improvement in the forecast skill is observed proceeding to the next forecast cycles. A presented case study demonstrated the value of the forecasting system in predicting both the movement and intensity of an MCS when applied in an appropriate situation. According to the verification results, the forecast scheme presented has proven to be a valuable tool in predicting the evolution of warm season isolated MCSs over the Mediterranean basin, even at the lower boundaries of the mesoscale.