Reproductive Value and the Stochastic Demography of Age-Structured Populations
Reproductive Value and the Stochastic Demography of Age-Structured Populations
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DOI：
10.1086/647930
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Dobson, F. Stephen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Engen, Steinar;Lande, Russell;Dobson, F. Stephen
年龄结构种群在波动环境中的动态是由随机个体对下一年种群总繁殖值的贡献决定的。描述人口动态所需的所有参数都是这些个体人口贡献分布的简单特性，我们称之为个体生殖值。平均环境中的渐近种群增长率以及人口和环境方差分别是个体随时间的平均个体繁殖值和年内和年间方差。我们的方法导致一个直观的理解，人口和环境的差异，年龄结构的人口和他们的分解成添加剂的年龄特定的组件，由于生存和繁殖。我们展示了如何应用这种方法来估计人口和环境的差异及其组成部分。这些估计数是根据每年对个人生命率的随机抽样得出的，不需要关于总人口规模的资料。
The dynamics of an age-structured population in a fluctuating environment is determined by the stochastic individual contributions from annual survival and fecundity to the total reproductive value of the population the next year. All parameters required to describe the population dynamics are simple properties of the distribution of these individual demographic contributions, which we call individual reproductive value. The asymptotic population growth rate in the average environment and the demographic and environmental variances are respectively the mean individual reproductive value over individuals through time and the variance within and between years. Our approach leads to an intuitive understanding of demographic and environmental variances in age-structured populations and their decomposition into additive age-specific components due to survival and reproduction. We show how to apply this approach to estimate the demographic and environmental variances and their components. The estimates are based on yearly random samples of individual vital rates and require no information about the total population size.