Assimilating Ocean Observation Data for ENSO Monitoring and Forecasting
Assimilating Ocean Observation Data for ENSO Monitoring and Forecasting
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DOI：
10.5772/30330
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发表时间：
2012-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Y. Fujii;M. Kamachi;T. Nakaegawa;T. Yasuda;G. Yamanaka;T. Toyoda;K. Ando;S. Matsumoto
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文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Fujii;M. Kamachi;T. Nakaegawa;T. Yasuda;G. Yamanaka;T. Toyoda;K. Ando;S. Matsumoto
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是全球和地区在季节-年际（SI）时间尺度上最具影响力的大气-海洋耦合气候系统波动之一。海洋资料同化系统通常用于监测ENSO，因为赤道太平洋海洋内部热含量的变化被认为是厄尔尼诺现象的良好前兆，对理解ENSO过程至关重要。它们还用于初始化耦合大气-海洋环流模式（CGCMs），以及各业务中心SI预报系统中的大气资料同化系统。本文以日本气象厅（JMA）系统为研究对象，讨论了目前用于ENSO监测和SI预报的业务海洋数据同化系统的能力。然后演示了通过这些系统吸收海洋观测数据在利用日本气象厅季节预报系统和ENSO预报系统进行SI预报的好处。本文还介绍了日本气象厅/日本气象研究所（MRI）最近在解决“耦合冲击”方面所做的努力，这是在SI预报中使用非耦合海洋和大气资料同化系统初始化的最关键问题之一。本章组织如下。第2节总结了开发用于最新ensomo监测和SI预报的海洋数据同化系统的过程。特别地，它描述了过去十年来在同化结果中改善温度-盐度（T-S）平衡的努力。然后，我们在第3节中介绍了JMA季节和ENSO预测系统中使用的海洋数据同化系统，作为最先进的系统。第4节论证了利用海洋资料同化系统同化海洋观测资料对ENSO和季节预报的重要性。第5节介绍了最近在JMA/MRI上解决耦合冲击的努力。第六节总结了这一章。同化海洋观测资料用于ENSO监测和预报
El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most influential fluctuations of the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system in the Seasonal-to-Interannual (SI) time scale for global and local communities. Ocean data assimilation systems are generally adopted for monitoring ENSO because the variation of the heat content in the ocean interior of the equatorial Pacific is considered a good precursor of El Ninos, and essential for understanding the ENSO process. They are also utilized for the initialization of Coupled Atmosphere-OceanGeneral Circulation Models (CGCMs), along with atmosphere data assimilation systems in the SI forecasting systems of various operational centers. In this paper, we discuss the capacity of current operational ocean data assimilation systems adopted for ENSO monitoring and SI forecasting based on studies using the system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). It then demonstrates the benefits of assimilating ocean observation data through those systems in SI forecasts using the JMA seasonal and ENSO forecasting system. It also introduces the recent effort of JMA/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) to resolve “coupled shock", which is one of the most crucial issues concerning the initialization with uncoupled ocean and atmosphere data assimilation systems in SI forecasting. This chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 summarizes the process of developing ocean data assimilation systems for up-to-date ENSOmonitoring and SI forecasting. In particular, it describes efforts to improve the Temperature-Salinity (T-S) balance in the assimilation results over the past decade. We then introduce the ocean data assimilation system used in the JMA seasonal and ENSO forecasting system as a state-of-the-art system in Section 3. Section 4 demonstrates the importance of assimilating ocean observation data through the ocean data assimilation system for ENSO and seasonal forecasting. Section 5 introduces the recent effort to resolve the coupled shock at JMA/MRI. This chapter is summarized in Section 6. Assimilating Ocean Observation Data for ENSO Monitoring and Forecasting