Forecasting electronic waste flows for effective circular economy planning
Forecasting electronic waste flows for effective circular economy planning
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.05.038
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Chen, Roger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Althaf, Shahana;Babbitt, Callie W.;Chen, Roger
消费电子行业的快速发展创造了新的资源和浪费挑战，这些挑战在当前的线性产品系统中得不到充分管理。循环经济（CE）战略为电子产品和材料的闭环提供了潜力，但往往缺乏与这个充满活力的部门保持同步所需的面向未来的视角。本研究通过开发物流预测物料流模型来解决这一挑战，该模型可以预测具有丰富历史销售数据的产品（成熟产品）以及刚刚进入市场的产品（新兴产品）的未来资源和废物流。在当前和传统电子产品中观察到的一个主要趋势是创新周期的稳步缩短，产品进入市场和达到销售高峰之间的时间随着时间的推移而缩短。这一趋势，再加上大量的历史和现代产品销售数据，被用来为新兴产品（如健身追踪器、智能恒温器和无人机）创建采用场景预测。研究结果表明，这些设备可能会在市场上迅速普及，但可能很快被后续产品创新所取代。相比之下，对crt、台式机、显示器和平板电视等成熟产品的废物流预测显示，它们对美国电子废物流的贡献正在下降。本研究提供了一个建模框架，通过识别产品生命周期结束管理中的近期机会和风险，以延长产品寿命并关闭关键材料的循环，可用于通知电子产品的CE策略。
Rapid evolution in the consumer electronics sector has created new resource and waste challenges that are inadequately managed in the current linear product system. Circular economy (CE) strategies offer potential to close the Loop on electronic products and materials, but often lack the future-oriented perspective needed to keep pace with this dynamic sector. The present study addresses this challenge by developing a logistic forecasting material flow model that can predict future resource and waste flows for products with abundant historic sales data (mature products) as well as for products that have just entered the market (emerging products). One of the key trends observed across current and legacy electronics is the steadily shrinking innovation cycle, where the time between a product's market entry and peak sales is decreasing over time. This trend, coupled with extensive historic and modem product sales data, was used to create adoption scenario forecasts for emerging products, like fitness trackers, smart thermostats, and drones. Findings show that these devices are likely to have rapid uptake in the market, but may be quickly replaced by subsequent product innovations. In contrast, waste flow forecasts for mature products like CRTs, desktops, monitors and flat panel TVs showed their declining contribution to the U.S. e-waste stream. This study contributes a modeling framework that can be used to inform CE strategies in electronics by identifying near term opportunities and risks in end-of-life management of products to extend product life and close the loop on key materials.