Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.
Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.
复制标题
东非高地的气候变化和疟疾的复兴。
DOI：
10.1038/415905a
复制
发表时间：
2002-02-21
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Snow, Robert W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hay, Simon I;Cox, Jonathan;Rogers, David J;Randolph, Sarah E;Stern, David I;Shanks, G Dennis;Myers, Monica F;Snow, Robert W
恶性疟原虫疟疾的公共卫生和经济后果再次被视为全球发展的优先事项。关于人为气候变化是否加剧了疟疾问题，特别是在高海拔地区，恶性疟原虫的传播受到低温的限制，人们一直有很多猜测。国际气候变化专门委员会得出的结论是，疟疾的分布可能会出现净扩大，在这一范围内发病率可能会增加。我们调查了东非四个高海拔地区的长期气象趋势，在过去20年里，这些地区的疟疾发病率有所上升。本研究表明，在过去一个世纪或在报告的疟疾卷土重来期间，温度、降雨量、蒸汽压和适合恶性疟原虫传播的月数没有显著变化。东非气候的高度时空变化进一步表明，所谓的当地疟疾复发与区域气候变化之间的联系过于简单化了。
The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature. The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range. We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic.