Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming
Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-019-0095-3
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发表时间：
2019-10-18
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Knutson, Thomas R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Maofeng;Vecchi, Gabriel A.;Knutson, Thomas R.
最近的气候模拟研究指出，由于气候变暖，热带气旋降雨率增加。这些研究表明，热带气旋降雨率的百分比增幅往往超过克劳修斯-克拉珀龙关系式所预期的饱和比湿度的增幅(类似于7摄氏度C-1)。我们使用能够模拟整个热带气旋强度谱的高分辨率气候模式，探索全球变暖下所有海洋上热带气旋降雨率的变化。与之前的结果一致，我们发现热带气旋降雨率有强劲的增加。模式中核心热带气旋降雨率的增加百分比明显大于Clausius-Clapeyron降雨率。但是，剔除风暴强度的影响后，降雨率的增加与Clausius-Clapeyron比率的匹配程度要好得多，这表明降雨率随气温升高的“超级Clausius-Clapeyron”尺度是由于变暖引起的热带气旋强度的增加所致。热带气旋强度的增加和环境水汽的增加共同解释了全球变暖条件下热带气旋降雨率增加的原因。
Recent climate modeling studies point to an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates in response to climate warming. These studies indicate that the percentage increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates often outpaces the increase in saturation specific humidity expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (similar to 7% degrees C-1). We explore the change in tropical cyclone rainfall rates over all oceans under global warming using a high-resolution climate model with the ability to simulate the entire intensity spectrum of tropical cyclones. Consistent with previous results, we find a robust increase of tropical cyclone rainfall rates. The percentage increase for inner-core tropical cyclone rainfall rates in our model is markedly larger than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. However, when the impact of storm intensity is excluded, the rainfall rate increase shows a much better match with the Clausius-Clapeyron rate, suggesting that the "super Clausius-Clapeyron" scaling of rainfall rates with temperature increase is due to the warming-induced increase of tropical cyclone intensity. The increase of tropical cyclone intensity and environmental water vapor, in combination, explain the tropical cyclone rainfall rate increase under global warming.