Integrative System Dynamics: Analysis of Policy Options for Tobacco Control in New Zealand
Integrative System Dynamics: Analysis of Policy Options for Tobacco Control in New Zealand
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DOI：
10.1002/sres.934
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Tobias, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cavana, Robert Y.;Tobias, Martin
烟草使用是一个全球性问题，其健康后果影响深远。需要采取系统的方法来帮助调查减少烟草使用对健康不利影响的政策。本文概述了为协助卫生部评估新西兰烟草控制政策的动态后果而开发的系统动力学模型。该模型由六个部分组成：人口；吸烟数据大相径庭;烟草消费;二手烟；相对风险和烟草导致的死亡。该模型对未来20-30年进行了模拟。所使用的仿真包是“iThink”，并提供了一个用于策略分析的用户界面。提供了一系列说明性场景，包括：照常营业；财政策略包括降低香烟价格；危害最小化策略包括减少上瘾香烟或减少有毒香烟以及上述政策的组合。主要产出变量（绩效衡量）包括当前吸烟率、烟草消费和烟草归因死亡率。最后指出了未来模型有待改进的地方。版权所有2009 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd。
Tobacco use is a global problem and the health consequences are far reaching. Systemic approaches are needed to help investigate policies to reduce the adverse health effects of tobacco use. This paper provides an overview of the system dynamics model that has been developed to assist the Ministry of Health to evaluate the dynamic consequences of tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model consists of six sectors: population; smoking prevalences; tobacco consumption; second hand smoke; relative risks and tobacco attributable deaths. The model is simulated for 20-30 years into the future. The simulation package used is 'iThink', and a user interface is presented for policy analysis. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including: business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm minimization strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic cigarettes and combinations of the above policies. The main output variables (performance measures) include current smoking prevalence, tobacco consumption and tobacco attributable mortality. Finally some areas for future model enhancement are identified. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.