ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models
ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Models
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli3696.1
复制
发表时间：
2006-04
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Shu‐Chih Yang;M. Cai;E. Kalnay;M. Rienecker;Guodong Yuan;Z. Toth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shu‐Chih Yang;M. Cai;E. Kalnay;M. Rienecker;Guodong Yuan;Z. Toth
该育种方法已在NASA季节-年际预测项目（NSIPP）耦合环流模式（CGCM）中实施，最终目的是通过集合预报和数据同化提高业务季节-年际气候预测。这是首次尝试在完全耦合的海洋-大气GCM中分离ENSO不稳定性演变及其相应的全球大气响应。结果表明，耦合繁殖载体（bv）的生长速率对背景流演变的ENSO阶段非常敏感，在ENSO事件发生前3个月左右达到峰值。优势生长型BV模态结构也随ENSO背景演变，在热带太平洋东部表现出较大的振幅，反映了与东部边界浅层温跃层相关的自然动力敏感性。利用自主开发的耦合环流模型NCEP CGCM再现了NSIPP CGCM耦合繁殖载体的主要特征。
The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with the ultimate goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. This is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM. The results herein show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BVs) is sensitive to the ENSO phases of the evolving background flow and peaks about 3 months before an ENSO event. The structure of the dominant growing BV modes also evolves with the background ENSO and exhibits a larger amplitude in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the shallow thermocline at the eastern boundary. The key features of coupled bred vectors of the NSIPP CGCM are reproduced when using the NCEP CGCM, an independently developed coupled general circulation model.