Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines.
Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep25625
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发表时间：
2016-05-23
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Muths E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Grant EH;Miller DA;Schmidt BR;Adams MJ;Amburgey SM;Chambert T;Cruickshank SS;Fisher RN;Green DM;Hossack BR;Johnson PT;Joseph MB;Rittenhouse TA;Ryan ME;Waddle JH;Walls SC;Bailey LL;Fellers GM;Gorman TA;Ray AM;Pilliod DS;Price SJ;Saenz D;Sadinski W;Muths E
自从四分之一世纪前，两栖动物的减少首次被认为是一种全球现象以来，保护界在阻止或扭转这些趋势方面几乎没有取得什么进展。早期对“确凿证据”的寻找被认为是多个驱动因素造成的预期所取代。虽然实地观察和实验已经确定了导致局部灭绝风险增加的因素，但在大的空间尺度上缺乏这些驱动因素影响的证据。在这里，我们使用来自北美61个研究区域的83个物种和复合体的389个时间序列的观察结果来测试4个主要假设的下降驱动因素的影响。虽然我们发现，当地两栖动物种群正在失去从集合种群的平均速度为3.79%，每年，这些下降是不相关的任何特定的威胁，在大陆规模，同样的影响，每个压力是可变的区域尺度。这一结果-暴露于威胁的空间变化，和人口在他们的反应不同-提供了一个小的一般性的保护战略的发展。需要更加强调地方解决办法，以解决这一全球共有的现象。
Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.