The 1997–98 Summer Rainfall Season in Southern Africa. Part I: Observations
The 1997–98 Summer Rainfall Season in Southern Africa. Part I: Observations
复制标题
1997-98 年南部非洲夏季降雨季节。
DOI：
10.1175/jcli4225.1
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
S. Mason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Lyon;S. Mason
摘要1997-98年强厄尔尼诺发生后，历史降雨遥相关模式和动力学模型预测都表明南部非洲干旱的可能性增加，但普遍的干旱条件未能实现。NCEP-NCAR再分析数据诊断研究的结果在这里报告演示如何大和区域尺度的大气环流在1997-98年厄尔尼诺不同于以往的事件。重点放在1998年1月至3月的季节和比较强的1982-83厄尔尼诺，虽然复合材料的8个事件发生在1950年和2000年之间也被认为是。在一个配套文件中，模拟运行从三个大气环流模式（AGCM），并从三个完全耦合模式的预测，调查在何种程度上的异常大气环流模式在1997-98年厄尔尼诺可能已经预期。观测结果表明，1997-98年厄尔尼诺现象表现出明显的季节性变化。
Abstract Following the onset of the strong El Nino of 1997–98 historical rainfall teleconnection patterns and dynamical model predictions both suggested an enhanced likelihood of drought for southern Africa, but widespread dry conditions failed to materialize. Results from a diagnostic study of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are reported here demonstrating how the large- and regional-scale atmospheric circulations during the 1997–98 El Nino differed from previous events. Emphasis is placed on the January–March 1998 season and comparisons with the strong 1982–83 El Nino, although composites of eight events occurring between 1950 and 2000 are also considered. In a companion paper, simulation runs from three atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and forecasts from three fully coupled models are employed to investigate the extent to which the anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns during the 1997–98 El Nino may have been anticipated. Observational results indicate that the 1997–98 El Nino displayed s...