Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing
Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abc5810
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发表时间：
2021-03-05
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Miller, Sonya K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mann, Michael E.;Steinman, Byron A.;Miller, Sonya K.
过去的研究认为，内部几十年（40至60年）振荡不同于气候噪音。最近的研究声称，这种所谓的大西洋年代际振荡是人为温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶相互竞争的随时间变化的影响的表现。这一结论得到了当前一代模式控制模拟中缺乏强大的数十年气候振荡的支持。然而，古气候数据确实显示了前工业时代的年代际振荡行为。通过比较控制和强制“最后的千年”模拟，我们表明，这些明显的几十年振荡是一个人工制品的火山活动的脉冲在前工业时代，项目显着到几十年（50- 70年）的频带。我们的结论是，没有令人信服的证据，在气候系统的内部几十年振荡。
Past research argues for an internal multidecadal (40- to 60-year) oscillation distinct from climate noise. Recent studies have claimed that this so-termed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is instead a manifestation of competing time-varying effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. That conclusion is bolstered by the absence of robust multidecadal climate oscillations in control simulations of current-generation models. Paleoclimate data, however, do demonstrate multidecadal oscillatory behavior during the preindustrial era. By comparing control and forced "Last Millennium" simulations, we show that these apparent multidecadal oscillations are an artifact of pulses of volcanic activity during the preindustrial era that project markedly onto the multidecadal (50- to 70-year) frequency band. We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.