Betting on Climate Policy: Using Prediction Markets to Address Global Warming
Betting on Climate Policy: Using Prediction Markets to Address Global Warming
复制标题
押注气候政策：利用预测市场应对全球变暖
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Felix Mormann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gary Lucas, Jr.;Felix Mormann
全球变暖、海平面上升和极端天气事件使气候变化成为地球仪决策者的首要任务。但是，哪些政策最适合应对气候变化带来的巨大挑战？本文建议政策制定者转向预测市场来回答这个关键问题。预测市场在各种背景下的表现都优于其他预测机制-从预测选举结果和经济趋势到猜测奥斯卡获奖者。例如，在气候变化的背景下，市场参与者可以押注于以采取特定政策为条件的重要气候结果。这些预测市场将汇集来自各种来源的与政策有关的信息，以改进现有的决策方法，包括专家审议、同行审查和成本效益分析。预测市场也有可能克服对减缓气候变化努力的抵制，特别是在以市场为导向的保守派中。我们解释了联邦和州政府如何利用预测市场来帮助解决备受瞩目的争议，例如如何最好地分配补贴以促进清洁技术创新，以及哪种政策战略承诺最大限度地减少碳排放。
Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction markets to answer that crucial question. Prediction markets have a strong track record of outperforming other forecasting mechanisms across a wide range of contexts – from predicting election outcomes and economic trends to guessing Oscar winners. In the context of climate change, market participants could, for example, bet on important climate outcomes conditioned on the adoption of particular policies. These prediction markets would aggregate policy-relevant information from a variety of sources to improve upon existing decision-making methods, including expert deliberation, peer review, and cost-benefit analysis. Prediction markets also have the potential to overcome resistance to climate change mitigation efforts, particularly among market-oriented conservatives. We explain how both the federal and state governments could use prediction markets to help resolve high-profile controversies, such as how best to allocate subsidies to promote clean technology innovation and which policy strategy promises the greatest reduction in carbon emissions.