Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters
Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01934.x
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Booth, David J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Figueira, Will F.;Booth, David J.
由于气候变化，澳大利亚东南海岸是全球海洋温度上升的热点。东澳大利亚洋流（EAC）的温带入侵正在增加，从而增加了与大堡礁的连接。热带来源的青少年在冬季的生存是一个重要的绊脚石，在这一地区的海洋生物向极地范围转移。在这里，我们研究的依赖越冬的冬季的严重性和冬前招聘的8种幼年珊瑚礁鱼进行到温带澳大利亚东南部（30-37度S）的EAC在南半球的夏天。持续的概率是最强烈的影响，冬季平均温度和招聘强度没有影响。长期（138年）数据表明，整个该区域冬季水温的上升速度高于全球平均水平，预测表明，到世纪末，水温将进一步上升2摄氏度以上。海洋温度上升导致冬季温度高于生存阈值的频率增加。目前的变暖轨迹预测，到2080年，至少有五种研究物种可以在悉尼以南（34 ° S）的100%的冬季生存下来。这些和其他种类的珊瑚礁鱼的范围扩大的影响进行了讨论。
The southeast coast of Australia is a global hotspot for increasing ocean temperatures due to climate change. The temperate incursion of the East Australian Current (EAC) is increasing, affording increased connectivity with the Great Barrier Reef. The survival of tropically sourced juveniles over the winter is a significant stumbling block to poleward range shifts of marine organisms in this region. Here we examine the dependence of overwintering on winter severity and prewinter recruitment for eight species of juvenile coral reef fishes which are carried into temperate SE Australia (30-37 degrees S) by the EAC during the austral summer. The probability of persistence was most strongly influenced by average winter temperature and there was no effect of recruitment strength. Long-term (138 years) data indicate that winter water temperatures throughout this region are increasing at a rate above the global average and predictions indicate a further warming of > 2 degrees C by the end of the century. Rising ocean temperatures are resulting in a higher frequency of winter temperatures above survival thresholds. Current warming trajectories predict 100% of winters will be survivable by at least five of the study species as far south as Sydney (34 degrees S) by 2080. The implications for range expansions of these and other species of coral reef fish are discussed.