COHERENCE, CHAOS AND EVOLUTION IN THE SOCIAL-CONTEXT
COHERENCE, CHAOS AND EVOLUTION IN THE SOCIAL-CONTEXT
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/0016-3287(94)90030-2
复制
发表时间：
1994-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
ALLEN, PM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ALLEN, PM
在复杂系统的连贯性的起源进行检查，它表明，机械方程的“运动”只是暂时表示的结构和组织存在于系统中在给定的时间。不同因素的精确轨迹，特别是在市场经济中，将是混乱的，或者肯定是敏感和不可预测的。但是，主要的一点是，系统结构的演变和变化是最重要的特征。这意味着，任何用来描述系统行为的力学方程，以及它们所基于的分类学，都会随着系统中新行为、新问题和新挑战的出现而改变。这些变化本质上是不可预测的，就像任何现有结构和分类法的预期稳定时间一样。换句话说，预测方程本身可能对应于一个特定的短期混沌轨迹，只有在系统结构保持不变的情况下才能保持对系统的有效描述，而且这只是在一个不可预测的时间内。因此，在认识到知识的局限性中可以找到智慧，新科学的目标应该是理解进化过程作为可持续存在的真正基础的重要性。
The origins of coherence in complex systems are examined, and it is shown that mechanical equations of 'motion' are only temporary representations of the structure and organization present in the system at a given time. The precise trajectories of different factors, particularly in market economies, will be chaotic, or certainly sensitive and unpredictable. However, the main point is that evolution and change in the structure of the system are the most important feature. It means that any mechanical equations that have been derived to describe behaviour in the system, and indeed the taxonomy on which these are based, will change over time as new behaviours, new problems and challenges emerge in the system. These changes are essentially unpredictable, as is the expected time of stability of any existing structure and taxonomy. In other words, the equations of prediction, which may themselves correspond to a particular short-term chaotic trajectory, will only remain a valid description of the system for as long as the system structure is maintained, and this is only for an unpredictable time. Wisdom therefore is to be found in recognizing the limits to knowledge, and the new science should aim at understanding the significance of evolutionary processes as the true basis for sustainable existence.