Natural gas supply-demand situation and prospect in China
Natural gas supply-demand situation and prospect in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ngib.2014.10.014
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发表时间：
2014-10
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Z. Kang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Z. Kang
进入世纪以来，我国常规天然气和致密气储量不断减少，产量年增长率普遍从两位数下降到一位数。据预测，2015年天然气产量可能达到1340亿m3，按市场化率90%计算，2015年供气量可能达到1206亿m3。目前页岩气开发刚刚起步，2015年将新增6亿m3左右的商品页岩气供应。煤层气产量特别是消费量长期落后于预期目标，且统计存在缺陷，据此，假设2015年煤层气市场销售量为40亿Nm 3。随着我国煤层气开发取得的巨大成就，预计2015年将新增55亿m3煤层气供气量。2015年国内燃料气供应总量粗略估算为1310亿m3，若按年用气量2310亿m3推算，则2015年进口量约1000亿m3。从管道天然气和液化天然气终端可推定的实际进口量来看，2015年仍有270 - 300亿立方米的缺口。因此，建议提前投产更多的LNG接收站，增加中亚进口天然气。建议在国家“十三五”能源规划基础研究中，完成对实际可售燃气量的统计。总之，经济体制改革进程是我国油气工业进一步发展的关键。
Since the 21st century, the reserves of conventional natural gas as well as tight gas in China have been decreasing and their annual production growth rates have been generally reduced from double-digit to one-digit number of percentage. It is predicted that natural gas production will possibly reach up to 134 billion m3in 2015; and if the marketable rate is 90%, the gas supply volume will probably be 120.6 billion m3in 2015. Since shale gas development just has started currently, about 0.6 billion m3of the marketable shale gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. The CBM gas production especially such gas consumption has long been lagged behind the expected targets, and what's more, flaws exist in their statistics; on this basis, it is assumed that the marketable CBM gas will be 4 billion Nm3in 2015. With so many achievements made in the coal gas exploitation, it is forecasted that about 5.5 billion m3coal gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. In total, the domestic fuel gas supply is roughly estimated to be 131 billion m3in 2015; if the gas consumption in the year is presumably 231 billion m3, about 100 billion m3gas will then be imported in 2015. From the presumable actual imports of piped gas and LNG terminals, there is still a gap of 27–30 billion m3in 2015. Therefore, it is suggested that more LNG receiving terminals be put into production in advance and the increment of import gas be needed from Middle Asia. Also, it is proposed that the statistics be completed on the practical marketable fuel gas quantity in the fundamental study of energy planning in the National 13th Five-Year Plan. In conclusion, the economic system reform process is the key to the further development of oil and gas industry in China.