Fuzziness, incompleteness and randomness; classification of uncertainty in reservoir appraisal
Fuzziness, incompleteness and randomness; classification of uncertainty in reservoir appraisal
复制标题
模糊性、不完整性和随机性；
作者：
L. Foley;L. Ball;A. Hurst;John Davis;D. Blockley
近年来，计算机技术的快速发展使得能够开发出越来越复杂的模拟器，这些模拟器可以处理大量数据。通常认为这会自动导致更准确的静态和动态储层模型。然而，在现实中，仍然有许多证据表明，预测的储层性能往往与实际生产行为有很大差异。这些偏差表明未能理解所涉及的过程，也未能认识到重要储层特征定义中固有的不确定性。本文提出了一种分类方案，其中不确定性表示为模糊性、不完全性和随机性。这些要素中的每一个都在储层评价的背景下详细描述和说明，尽管该方法可以应用于石油地球科学的更广泛的方面。据信，采用这种分类方案将使地球科学家能够在储层评价中建立更广泛的不确定性。它还将是一个宝贵的工具，可用于使用一致的语言向管理层通报现有的不确定性，从而为决策过程提供指导。
The rapid progress in computer technology in recent years has enabled the development of increasingly complex simulators, which can handle large amounts of data. It is often assumed that this automatically leads to more accurate static and dynamic reservoir models. In reality, however, there is still much evidence that the predicted performance of a reservoir often differs vastly from the actual production behaviour. These deviations are an indication of the failure to understand the processes involved and to recognize the uncertainty inherent in the definition of important reservoir characteristics. In this paper, a classification scheme is proposed, in which uncertainty is expressed as fuzziness, incompleteness and randomness. Each of these elements is described in detail and illustrated within the context of reservoir appraisal, although the approach can be applied to the wider aspects of petroleum geoscience. It is believed that adopting this classification scheme will enable the geoscientist to build a more extensive picture of uncertainty in reservoir appraisal. It will also be invaluable as a tool with which to inform management of the existing uncertainty, using a consistent language, thus providing guidance in the decision-making process.