Can a Higher Inflation Target Reduce Inflation Volatility?
Can a Higher Inflation Target Reduce Inflation Volatility?
复制标题
更高的通胀目标能否降低通胀波动？
DOI：
10.1111/meca.12142
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Karras
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Karras
本文研究了通货膨胀与通货膨胀波动之间的关系。使用1913年至2013年的月度数据，结果显示，当通货膨胀超过一定值时，美国通货膨胀及其波动性一直呈正相关，但当通货膨胀低于该阈值时，则呈负相关。证据还表明，在年通胀率为1%和3.6%之间，通胀波动最小，这包括许多央行的2%通胀目标，以及Coibion等人（2012）的新凯恩斯主义模型预测的3.5%突破点，但不是Ball（2013）和Krugman（2013）建议的4%通胀目标。
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility. Using monthly data from 1913 to 2013, the results show that U.S. inflation and its volatility have been positively correlated when inflation exceeds a certain value, but negatively correlated when inflation is below this threshold. The evidence also suggests that inflation volatility is minimized between annual inflation rates of 1 and 3.6%, which includes both the 2% inflation target of many central banks, and the 3.5% break point predicted by the New Keynesian model of Coibion et al. (2012), but not the 4% inflation target recommended by Ball (2013) and Krugman (2013).