The Effects of Demographic Dynamics on Economic Growth in EU Economies: a Panel Vector Autoregressive Approach
The Effects of Demographic Dynamics on Economic Growth in EU Economies: a Panel Vector Autoregressive Approach
复制标题
人口动态对欧盟经济体经济增长的影响：面板向量自回归方法
DOI：
10.1007/s12062-022-09375-5
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Mirani Latjin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hiroyuki Taguchi;Mirani Latjin
本研究使用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型作为分析方法，估计了人口动态对经济增长的影响，重点关注1970-2020年和2020-2050年19个欧盟经济体的工作年龄人口和预期寿命。主要发现如下。首先，PVAR估计确定了劳动年龄人口比例的增长和预期寿命的延长对经济增长的积极影响。其次，本研究中过去人口红利期的人口效应对经济增长的贡献率平均约为15%，与之前的研究发现的比率相当。第三，对2020-2050年的预测表明，在所有样本经济体中，人口负担对年度经济增长的负面人口影响程度平均为-0.385。这项研究的主要政策含义是，已经进入人口转型的人口责任阶段的欧盟经济体需要减轻劳动年龄人口比例下降的负面影响。
This study estimates the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth, with a focus on the working-age population and life expectancy in 19 European Union economies for 1970–2020 and 2020–2050, using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model as the analytical methodology. The main findings are as follows. First, the PVAR estimation identifies positive effects of the growth of the working-age population share and the extension of life expectancy on economic growth. Second, the contribution ratio of the demographic effects to economic growth for past population bonus periods is approximately 15% on average in this study, which is comparable to the ratios found in previous studies. Third, the projection for 2020–2050 shows that the magnitude of the negative demographic effect on annual economic growth due to the population onus is −0.385 on average among all sample economies. The main policy implication of this study is that the EU economies that have already entered the population onus phase of the demographic transition need to mitigate the negative effects of the decline in the working-age population share.