Simple prediction of interaction strengths in complex food webs
Simple prediction of interaction strengths in complex food webs
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0806823106
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发表时间：
2009-01-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Brose, Ulrich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berlow, Eric L.;Dunne, Jennifer A.;Brose, Ulrich
达尔文关于物种间相互依存关系的“纠缠银行”的经典形象长期以来表明，很难预测一个物种的消失如何影响其他物种的丰富度。我们表明，对于现实结构的生态网络的动态模型，其中成对的消费者-资源相互作用异速缩放至 3/4 次方（如代谢理论所示），通过在自然界中容易观察到的变量的简单函数可以很好地预测失去一个物种对另一个物种的影响。通过从 600 个网络中系统地删除单个物种，从 10-30 个物种中，我们分析了 254,032 个可能的成对物种相互作用的强度如何取决于 90 个随机变化的物种、链接和网络属性。我们发现，通过两个物种的生物量和去除的物种的体重的简单函数可以很好地预测一对物种之间的相互作用强度，这表明更大的网络复杂性简化了预测相互作用强度。通过营养效应并阐明重要的非营养相互作用的迹象和程度。
Darwin's classic image of an "entangled bank'' of interdependencies among species has long suggested that it is difficult to predict how the loss of one species affects the abundance of others. We show that for dynamical models of realistically structured ecological networks in which pair-wise consumer-resource interactions allometrically scale to the 3/4 power-as suggested by metabolic theory-the effect of losing one species on another can be predicted well by simple functions of variables easily observed in nature. By systematically removing individual species from 600 networks ranging from 10-30 species, we analyzed how the strength of 254,032 possible pair-wise species interactions depended on 90 stochastically varied species, link, and network attributes. We found that the interaction strength between a pair of species is predicted well by simple functions of the two species' biomasses and the body mass of the species removed. On average, prediction accuracy increases with network size, suggesting that greater web complexity simplifies predicting interaction strengths. Applied to field data, our model successfully predicts interactions dominated by trophic effects and illuminates the sign and magnitude of important nontrophic interactions.