Empirical Master Equations. Part II: Application to Stratospheric QBO, Solar Cycle, and Northern Annular Mode
Empirical Master Equations. Part II: Application to Stratospheric QBO, Solar Cycle, and Northern Annular Mode
复制标题
经验主方程。
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Egger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Dall’Amico;J. Egger
摘要利用平流层气候变量的时间序列，在由三个变量组成的离散相空间中推导出主方程。经验主方程（EME）预测了该相空间的概率密度函数（PDF）。本文第一部分利用合成时间序列研究了EMEs的数值性质。在本文的这一部分，时间序列包括从40年ECMWF重新分析（ERA-40）和观测中获得的标准化和非季节性的日平均和纬向平均气象相关量。一个EME再现了平流层赤道纬向风准两年振荡（QBO）的气候学特征，包括相间转换的概率特征。此外，北极平流层在10 hPa的温度在QBO的东风期比西风期高约2 K。另一个包含10.7 cm太阳射电通量时间序列的EME暗示了…
Abstract Time series of stratospheric climate variables are used to derive master equations in the discretized phase space spanned by three variables. The empirical master equation (EME) predicts the probability density function (PDF) in this phase space. The numerical properties of EMEs have been investigated in the first part of this paper using synthetic time series. In this part of the paper, the time series consist of normalized and deseasonalized daily and zonally averaged meteorologically relevant quantities obtained from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and observations. One EME reproduces the climatological features of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind including the probabilistic character of transitions between phases. Also, the Arctic stratosphere at 10 hPa is about 2 K warmer during the easterly phase of the QBO than during the westerly phase. Another EME including a time series of the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm hints that the relationship between...