Environmental and economic multi-objective optimization of comprehensive energy industry: A case study
Environmental and economic multi-objective optimization of comprehensive energy industry: A case study
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2021.121534
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Hui Kong;Zheng Li;Zhufeng Yu;Jun Zhang;Hongsheng Wang;Jian Wang;Dan Gao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hui Kong;Zheng Li;Zhufeng Yu;Jun Zhang;Hongsheng Wang;Jian Wang;Dan Gao
煤炭在能源结构中仍将长期占据主导地位，但严峻的环境问题要求煤炭必须清洁高效地利用。提出在企业层面开展煤炭与新能源产业结构优化模式的集成研究。为满足低碳要求，构建了多种约束条件下以煤炭和新能源为主的能源结构多目标上层建筑优化模型，同时选取碳排放和总利润为目标。然后以一家具有代表性的能源公司的产业结构为研究对象进行了案例分析。通过自主开发的混合规划方法实现帕累托前沿的最优解，分析了三种不同情景下的能源产业调整与布局优化。减排率2%的拐点被推荐为基准情景下的最优选择，新能源发电成为集团调整投资结构后利润的新增长点。煤炭与新能源发电价格的对比将严重影响低碳情景的优化和预测结果。2020年全年利润在疫情下大幅下降，但排放和利润的变化规律与基线情景基本一致。本文的研究方法和量化结果可为相关综合性能源企业调整战略布局和制定战略规划提供借鉴。
Coal will continue to dominate the energy structure for a long time, however, the severe environmental issues require that coal should be cleanly and efficiently utilized. This work proposes to carry out integrated research on the optimization model of the coal and new energy-based industrial structure at the enterprise level. To meet the low-carbon requirements, a multi-objective superstructure optimization model of the coal and new energy-based energy structure under a variety of constraints is constructed, while the carbon emissions and total profits are selected as the objectives simultaneously. Then a case study is conducted with the industrial structure of a representative energy company as the study object. Via self-developed mixed programming to achieve the optimal solution of Pareto-frontier, this study analyzed the energy industry adjustment and layout optimization under three different scenarios. The turning point with the emission reduction rate of 2 % is recommended as the optimal choice under the baseline scenario, and new energy power generation has become a new growth point of the group's profits after adjusting the investment structure. Comparisons between the coal and new energy power generation prices will seriously affect the optimization and prediction results of the low-carbon scenario. The annual profit in 2020 will decrease significantly under the epidemic situation, but the change rules of emissions and profits are basically consistent with the baseline scenario. The research methods and quantitative results could be generalized for relevant comprehensive energy companies to adjust their strategic layout and make plans.