Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation "slash and clear" vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis.
Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation "slash and clear" vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis.
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通过植被“削减和清除”病媒控制策略补充 MDA 来加速消除河盲症：数据驱动的建模分析。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-51835-0
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Michael,Edwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Smith,MorganE;Bilal,Shakir;Lakwo,ThomsonL;Habomugisha,Peace;Tukahebwa,Edridah;Byamukama,Edson;Katabarwa,MosesN;Richards,FrankO;Cupp,EddieW;Unnasch,ThomasR;Michael,Edwin
人们的注意力日益集中在如何以最佳方式加快实现世卫组织2030年被忽视的热带病目标的进展。河盲症是一种主要的以消除为目标的非传染性疾病，使用病媒控制来抑制传播已有很长的历史，但传统的基于杀幼虫剂的方法在效用上受到限制。一种创新和可持续的方法，“刀耕草种”，涉及清除养殖区的植被，最近的田间试验表明，这种技术非常有效地降低了鼠绵猴的咬人密度。在本研究中，我们使用贝叶斯数据驱动的数学建模方法来研究这种干预对人类盘尾丝虫病感染的潜在影响。我们建立了一种描述干预对黑蝇季节性叮咬率影响的新模型，并将其与盘尾丝虫病传播的种群动态模型相结合。本研究结果表明，每年辅以“削除”的药物治疗，可显著加快消除盘尾丝虫病的实现。干预措施的效果对实施时间不太敏感，即使每年只清除一次植被，其影响也是有意义的。因此，这种社区驱动的技术将是实现和维持ingo的重要选择。volvuluselimination。
Attention is increasingly focusing on how best to accelerate progress toward meeting the WHO’s 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). For river blindness, a major NTD targeted for elimination, there is a long history of using vector control to suppress transmission, but traditional larvicide-based approaches are limited in their utility. One innovative and sustainable approach, “slash and clear”, involves clearing vegetation from breeding areas, and recent field trials indicate that this technique very effectively reduces the biting density ofSimulium damnosum s.s. In this study, we use a Bayesian data-driven mathematical modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of this intervention on human onchocerciasis infection. We developeda novel “slash and clear” model describing the effect of the intervention on seasonal black fly biting rates and coupledthis with our population dynamics model ofOnchocerca volvulustransmission. Our results indicate that supplementing annual drug treatments with “slash and clear” can significantly accelerate the achievement of onchocerciasis elimination. The efficacy of the intervention is not very sensitive to the timing of implementation, and the impact is meaningful even if vegetation is cleared only once per year. As such, this community-driven technique will represent an important option for achieving and sustainingO. volvuluselimination.