On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice
On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.027
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Bergh, Jon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aksenov, Yevgeny;Popova, Ekaterina E.;Bergh, Jon
过去十年来，北极夏季海冰的迅速减少，引发了航运业对该地区货物运输量增加的可能性的争论。北海航线沿西伯利亚海岸的平均航行时间已从20世纪90年代的20天降至2012至2013年的11天，原因是西伯利亚海岸海冰状况的缓解。然而，开发北极航线的经济风险是巨大的。在此，根据IPCC的RCP8.5排放情景，对21世纪末的海洋和海冰进行了详细的高分辨率预测，以检验北极海上航线的可通航性。在夏季，以前被浮冰覆盖的大片北冰洋向风和表面波开放，导致北极浮冰覆盖演变成边缘冰带。正在形成的北冰洋的特点是海冰更加碎片化，更薄，风、洋流和海浪更强。到21世纪中期，沿北极航线的夏季航行时间估计为13-17天，这可能使这条航线与北海航线一样快。(C) 2016年作者。Elsevier Ltd.出版。
The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 20122013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13-17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.